What it is

When it's needed

Ahead of entering a sanctions-adjacent market, when a sanctions regime is shifting, or when leadership needs a clear-eyed read on whether a target state is likely to comply, adapt, or dig in.

In-depth analysis of how nuclear-armed and nuclear-aspiring states — India, Iran, North Korea, and comparable cases — actually respond to sanctions and proliferation pressure, built on comparative case research rather than generic compliance scoring. Findings from this research line show sanctions frequently produce adaptation and resilience rather than compliance — a distinction that changes what "risk" means for anyone exposed to these markets

Who it is for

Investors and financial institutions with exposure to sanctioned or sanctions-adjacent markets, multinational corporates operating in or trading with India, Iran, or North Korea-linked supply chains, and compliance teams that need judgment beyond a sanctions checklist.

What Hesperus does

• Analyzes how states have historically responded to sanctions and proliferation pressure, using comparative case analysis.

• Assesses whether a given sanctions regime is likely to produce compliance, adaptation, or resilience in the specific case at hand.

• Evaluates second-order risks for investors and corporates exposed to these markets.

• Monitors policy shifts, elite discourse, and sanctions-regime changes relevant to your exposure.

What you receive

• A sanctions/proliferation risk brief specific to your exposure.

• A comparative case-analysis memo.

• A watch list of triggers and early-warning indicators.

Expected Outcomes

Clarity on whether sanctions pressure will actually change target-state behavior, and a defensible basis for exposure decisions.

Sample deliverables
Sanctions exposure brief · Comparative case memo · Policy-shift alert · Risk assessment report